South West England Summary - UK climate projections (UKCP09)

Over the next 70 years in South West England, winters could be hotter (+3.4ºC) & wetter (+31%) and summers hotter (+6.9ºC) & drier (-23%).

• Hotter Winters: up to 3.4 ºC
• Between the 2020s and 2080s with Low - High emissions winter mean temperatures will be increased by 1.2ºC to 3.4 ºC.
• Hotter Summers: up to 6.9ºC
• Between the 2020s and 2080s with Low - High emissions summer mean daily maximum temperature will be increased by 2.2ºC to 6.9ºC.

• Drier Summers: up to to 23% less rain
• Between the 2020s and 2080s with Low - High emissions the change in summer mean precipitation will be –6% to –23%
• Wetter Winters: up to 31% more rain
• Between the 2020s and 2080s with Low - High emissions the change in winter mean precipiation will be 6% to 31%

Low emissions scenario, central estimates, SW England	2020s	2050s	2080s
increase in
winter mean temperature	1.2ºC	1.8ºC	2.4ºC
summer mean temperature	1.6ºC	2.5ºC	2.9ºC
summer mean daily maximum temperature	2.2ºC	3.4ºC	4.1ºC
summer mean daily minimum temperature	1.7ºC	2.6ºC	3.1ºC
change in
annual mean precipitation	1%	0%	2%
winter mean precipitation	6%	12%	19%
summer mean precipitation	–6%	–13%	–15%
Summary: crabsallover, 21 June 2009

Medium emissions scenario, central estimates, SW England	2020s	2050s	2080s
increase in
winter mean temperature	1.3ºC	2.1ºC	2.8ºC
summer mean temperature	1.6ºC	2.7ºC	3.9ºC
summer mean daily maximum temperature	2.1ºC	3.8ºC	5.4ºC
summer mean daily minimum temperature	1.6ºC	2.9ºC	4.1ºC
change in
annual mean precipitation	0%	0%	1%
winter mean precipitation	7%	17%	23%
summer mean precipitation	–7%	–19%	–23%
Summary: crabsallover, 21 June 2009

High emissions scenario, central estimates, SW England	2020s	2050s	2080s
increase in
winter mean temperature	1.2ºC	2.3ºC	3.4ºC
summer mean temperature	1.5ºC	3.1ºC	5ºC
summer mean daily maximum temperature	2.1ºC	4.3ºC	6.9ºC
summer mean daily minimum temperature	1.6ºC	3.3ºC	5.3ºC
change in
annual mean precipitation	0%	0%	1%
winter mean precipitation	7%	18%	31%
summer mean precipitation	–4%	–19%	–29%
Summary: crabsallover, 21 June 2009