Key findings for South West England, 2020s - Medium emissions scenario

Reposted from:http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/2268/528.html

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase inwinter mean temperature is 1.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.7ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 4ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.9ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –4% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –4% to 6%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 7%; it is very unlikely to be less than –1% and is very unlikely to be more than 20%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –2% to 20%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change insummer mean precipitation is –7%; it is very unlikely to be less than –26% and is very unlikely to be more than 14%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –26% to 18%.