Key findings for South West England, 2080s - Medium emissions scenario

Reposted from: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/2274/528.html

Medium emissions scenario

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase inwinter mean temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 5.1ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean temperature is 3.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 7.9ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean daily maximum temperature is 5.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 9.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 11.9ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean daily minimum temperature is 4.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 8.8ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than –4% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –6% to 9%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 23%; it is very unlikely to be less than 6% and is very unlikely to be more than 54%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 5% to 73%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change insummer mean precipitation is –23%; it is very unlikely to be less than –49% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –57% to 13%