Key findings for South West England, 2050s - Medium emissions scenario

Reposted from: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/2271/528.html

Medium emissions scenario

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase inwinter mean temperature is 2.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.5ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 5.1ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.6ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase insummer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 5.5ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –4% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –5% to 6%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 17%; it is very unlikely to be less than 4% and is very unlikely to be more than 38%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0% to 41%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change insummer mean precipitation is –19%; it is very unlikely to be less than –41% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –43% to 16%.