Sunday 21 June 2009

Key findings: UK-wide - Change in mean summer temperature (ºC) for the UK - Medium emissions scenario



Reposted from: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/910/527/index.html

The range from the lowest to the highest value of change for all emissions scenarios and all three probability levels (10, 50 and 90%) is shown as the wider range.

Change in mean summer temperature (ºC)
2020s Medium emssions scenario
RegionProbability level
10%
50%
90%
Wider range
Channel Islands
0.5
1.4
2.5
0.4
2.5
East Midlands0.5
1.42.5
0.4
2.5
East of England
1.2
2.5
4.3
1.0
4.8
Isle of Man
0.5
1.3
2.2
0.5
2.2
London
0.6
1.5
2.7
0.5
2.7
North East England
0.6
1.5
2.5
0.6
2.5
North West England
0.6
1.5
2.5
0.6
2.5
Northern Ireland0.4
1.32.2
0.4
2.2
Scotland East
0.6
1.4
2.4
0.6
2.4
Scotland North
0.5
1.2
2.1
0.5
2.1
Scotland West0.5
1.6
2.7
0.5
2.7
South East England
0.6
1.6
2.7
0.5
2.8
South West England0.5
1.6
2.7
0.5
2.7
Wales0.5
1.4
2.5
0.5
2.5
West Midlands
0.5
1.5
2.6
0.5
2.6
Yorkshire & Humber
0.5
1.3
2.3
0.4
2.4



xxx
Change in mean summer temperature (ºC)
2050s Medium emssions scenario
RegionProbability level
10%
50%
90%
Wider range
Channel Islands
1.2
2.5
4.2
1.0
4.7
East Midlands1.22.54.2
1.0
4.7
East of England
1.22.5
4.3
1.0
4.8
Isle of Man
1.1
2.3
3.7
1.0
4.2
London
1.3
2.7
4.6
1.1
5.2
North East England
1.22.54.1
1.1
4.7
North West England
1.22.64.1
1.1
4.7
Northern Ireland1.0
2.2
3.5
0.8
4.0
Scotland East
1.1
2.3
3.9
1.0
4.5
Scotland North
0.92.0
3.4
0.93.9
Scotland West1.1
2.4
3.8
1.0
4.4
South East England
1.32.7
4.6
1.1
5.2
South West England1.3
2.7
4.6
1.1
5.1
Wales1.22.54.1
1.0
4.6
West Midlands
1.2
2.64.4
1.0
4.8
Yorkshire & Humber
1.1
2.3
3.9
0.9
4.4

xx
Change in mean summer temperature (ºC)
2080s Medium emssions scenario
RegionProbability level
10%
50%
90%
Wider range
Channel Islands
1.9
3.6
5.9
1.2
7.3
East Midlands1.8
3.5
5.8
1.27.3
East of England
1.9
3.6
5.9
1.3
7.5
Isle of Man
1.8
3.3
5.2
1.2
6.5
London
2.0
3.9
6.4
1.3
8.0
North East England
2.0
3.7
5.8
1.3
7.2
North West England
2.03.7
5.9
1.3
7.3
Northern Ireland1.7
3.2
5.0
1.1
6.2
Scotland East
1.8
3.5
5.6
1.2
7.0
Scotland North
1.5
3.0
4.9
1.0
6.0
Scotland West1.8
3.5
5.5
1.2
6.8
South East England
2.0
3.9
6.4
1.4
8.1
South West England2.1
3.9
6.4
1.3
7.9
Wales1.9
3.6
5.8
1.2
7.2
West Midlands
2.0
3.7
6.1
1.3
7.5
Yorkshire & Humber
1.7
3.3
5.5
1.2
6.9
x
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