Accomplishments to Date. . . and Challenges
Technology versus politics and economics
* Between 1990 and 2000, the total greenhouse-gas emissions of industrialized countries actually declined slightly (by 5.6 per cent) -- but that reflected unusual circumstances. Because of the steep and painful drop in economic output of the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, which were shifting from centrally planned to market economies, emissions in those nations fell by 37 per cent. That more than compensated for an 8.2 per cent increase in emissions among developed countries elsewhere.But now the Eastern European "economies in transition" are growing again, and their emissions are rising. The real work, what is really needed -- worldwide economic progress combined with reduced emissions -- has yet to be accomplished. It will not be easy.
* The good news is that technology already exists that could stabilize and even reduce greenhouse gas levels within a few decades. The problem is that getting such technology in place -- installing and paying for more efficient procedures for burning fossil fuels and for using renewable energy sources such as solar power and wind power -- is politically and economically difficult.
* Economic systems and governments currently aren't arranged for accomplishing greenhouse-gas reductions. The costs of cutting emissions tend to be immediate and specific -- they can carry an economic sting, for example, for businesses, automobile owners, and electrical-generation facilities. The benefits, such as fewer severe storms, floods, and droughts, not to mention and a cleaner and safer environment, will occur gradually in the future and will benefit people everywhere, whether they pay for the relevant technology or not. It is hard to put a price on these positive outcomes.
The system has to be adjusted so that the burdens as well as the benefits are fairly distributed.
* There also are competitiveness problems: if laws and regulations around the world aren't equally demanding, businesses in countries that don't require greenhouse-gas reductions will be able to operate more cheaply and sell their products at lower prices (at least in the short term) than businesses in countries that require more climate-friendly behavior. Multinational corporations may shift their factories to places where regulations are less restrictive.
* Some technologies and policies, called "no-regret options," can reduce emissions and pay for themselves through greater efficiency and lower operating costs. . . but even those require investments up front which some businesses may not be able or willing to pay, especially if they don't receive credits or loans from governments.
* While useful technology may be bought and shared, in the end "no regrets" methods won't be enough to stabilize or reduce worldwide greenhouse-gas levels -- governments, businesses, and people are going to have to make difficult choices and take painful steps. That will call for political will. . . and the world, of course, is facing many other problems that require attention and sacrifice.
Examples of progress to date
* Denmark stabilized emissions between 1990 and 2000 by switching to more efficient methods of electricity generation and by shifting from coal use in industry to renewable energy and natural gas. The country's Gross Domestic Product increased by 27 per cent during the decade.
* Germany achieved a considerable reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through the economic restructuring resulting from the reunification of the country, through the reduced use of lignite, and through greater use of wind energy. There also were substantial cuts in methane emissions from coal production, waste management, and agriculture, and in nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.
* The United Kingdom established a "national climate change" policy that set targets for using energy more efficiently, and was able to lower emissions, among other things by using less coal and more natural gas.
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