Royal Society - Climate Change

Reposted from: Royal Society Climate Change Home Page

Paul Entwhistle at David Wardens talk recommended Royal Society overview - Climate Change controversies, a simple guide (April 2007)

The Royal Society has produced this overview of the current state of scientific understanding of climate change to help non-experts better understand some of the debates in this complex area of science.

This is not intended to provide exhaustive answers to every contentious argument that has been put forward by those who seek to distort and undermine the science of climate change and deny the seriousness of the potential consequences of global warming. Instead, the Society - as the UK's national academy of science - responds here to eight key arguments that are currently in circulation by setting out, in simple terms, where the weight of scientific evidence lies.

• Misleading argument 1 : The Earth's climate is always changing and this is nothing to do with humans.
• Misleading argument 2 : Carbon dioxide only makes up a small part of the atmosphere and so cannot be responsible for global warming.
• Misleading argument 3 : Rises in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are the result of increased temperatures, not the other way round.
• Misleading argument 4 : Observations of temperatures taken by weather balloons and satellites do not support the theory of global warming.
• Misleading argument 5 : Computer models which predict the future climate are unreliable and based on a series of assumptions.
• Misleading argument 6 : It's all to do with the Sun - for example, there is a strong link between increased temperatures on Earth with the number of sunspots on the Sun.
• Misleading argument 7 : The climate is actually affected by cosmic rays.
• Misleading argument 8 : The scale of the negative effects of climate change is often overstated and there is no need for urgent action.

Our scientific understanding of climate change is sufficiently sound to make us highly confident that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. Science moves forward by challenge and debate and this will continue. However, none of the current criticisms of climate science, nor the alternative explanations of global warming are well enough founded to make not taking any action the wise choice. The science clearly points to the need for nations to take urgent steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, as much and as fast as possible, to reduce the more severe aspects of climate change. We must also prepare for the impacts of climate change, some of which are already inevitable.

This document was compiled with the help of the Royal Society Climate Change Advisory Group and other leading experts.

April 2007

PDF download:

• Climate change controversies: a simple guide (Adobe PDF File)

Climate Safety

Reposted from: http://www.climatesafety.org

Sue Chapman kindly gave me a copy (priced £7) of the Climate Safety - In Case of Emergency booklet (pdf) at David Wardens' talk on Climate Change.

Kyoto Protocol

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so. Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. 183 Parties of the Convention have ratified its Protocol to date. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in 2001, and are called the “Marrakesh Accords.”

The Kyoto mechanisms

Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.

The Kyoto mechanisms are:

• Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"
• Clean development mechanism (CDM)
• Joint implementation (JI).

The mechanisms help stimulate green investment and help Parties meet their emission targets in a cost-effective way.

Monitoring emission targets

Under the Protocol, countries’actual emissions have to be monitored and precise records have to be kept of the trades carried out.

Registry systems track and record transactions by Parties under the mechanisms. The UN Climate Change Secretariat, based in Bonn, Germany, keeps an international transaction log to verify that transactions are consistent with the rules of the Protocol.

Reporting is done by Parties by way of submitting annual emission inventories and national reports under the Protocol at regular intervals.

A compliance system ensures that Parties are meeting their commitments and helps them to meet their commitments if they have problems doing so.

Adaptation
The Kyoto Protocol, like the Convention, is also designed to assist countries in adapting to the adverse effects of climate change. It facilitates the development and deployment of techniques that can help increase resilience to the impacts of climate change.

The Adaptation Fund was established to finance adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Fund is financed mainly with a share of proceeds from CDM project activities.

The road ahead

The Kyoto Protocol is generally seen as an important first step towards a truly global emission reduction regime that will stabilize GHG emissions, and provides the essential architecture for any future international agreement on climate change.

By the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, a new international framework needs to have been negotiated and ratified that can deliver the stringent emission reductions the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has clearly indicated are needed.

More information on targets

Changing the Culture

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2910.php

Changing Lifestyles and Rules - The role of culture and habit

* People don't necessarily make decisions based on efficiency or the health of the environment. They are apt to do what they've done in the past, what is expected, what their friends and neighbors do, what is fashionable. Driving a car with a large engine when a small engine -- which burns less fuel -- will do the job is a matter of choice. In choosing cars and electrical appliances and methods for heating and cooling their homes, human beings don't necessarily think about climate change. And when thousands and even millions of people make choices that add unnecessarily to the global warming problem, the effects can be considerable.


* Traditions and habits also may limit the lifestyle choices that are available. Businesses and governments tend not to supply products, services, and policies people don't want. Mass transit is much less wasteful of fossil fuels than automobile use, but if the public hasn't demanded mass transit and the necessary train lines and subway systems and bus routes haven't been built, then they aren't quickly available when and if people change their minds. Momentum has to be built up for such changes . . . and yet, paradoxically, if the options aren't available, it's hard to establish momentum for them. "Hybrid" cars use roughly half the gasoline of standard automobiles, but because few customers have asked for such vehicles, the price per car is high and few auto makers produce them.

* Lack of demand also slows innovation and technological progress, while heightened interest accelerates it. The key here is "interest." If customers and citizens, especially in industrialized countries, become strongly interested in combating global warming and are willing to buy products that cut emissions, new processes and technologies could well be invented that would greatly reduce or even solve the problem. Enormous technological breakthroughs in the past have occurred because of such pressures.

Governments as prods and guides

* Laws and regulations can have a major impact on greenhouse-gas emissions because they affect business behavior and public habits. Some governments encourage the use of mass transit; some -- through tax arrangements, road-building programmes, and even subsidies -- encourage the burning of fossil fuels. One way (admittedly not always popular) of changing behavior is to make it illegal. Another is to make it more expensive through taxes or penalties.

* Some governments, spurred by membership in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have already attempted to cut greenhouse gas emissions with a mixture of carrots and sticks -- with inducements, subsidies, voluntary programmes, regulations, and fines. Several have attacked the problem directly by imposing "taxes" on carbon use. Others have established "carbon markets" where units of energy use may be bought and sold. These arrangements anticipate provisions that will apply to governments that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, once the Protocol enters into force.

* Minimum standards for energy efficiency in new buildings were updated recently in a series of countries, including Austria, France, Japan, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Such measures can include requirements for walls and roofs that limit heat loss. And they can require a minimum level of thermal efficiency for furnaces and water heaters.

* Standards for energy efficiency in electrical appliances have been established by some governments. A programme begun by Japan in 1998 is expected to cut the energy requirements of home video recorders by 59 per cent, refrigerators by 30 per cent, and computers by 83 per cent. The sting of more stringent regulations can be softened by inducements, as in the Netherlands, where tougher European Community appliance standards are now in effect. In the Netherlands, householders are entitled to a partial rebate on the purchase prices of the most efficient appliances.

* Economic and fiscal instruments have been used to spur shifts in freight transport from roads to rail systems and ships, which use less fuel per ton of goods transported. Examples are the introduction of road tolls in Austria and mileage-based tolls for lorries in Austria, Germany, and Slovenia; increased investments in rail systems in Austria and Belgium; and promotion of ship and rail use for freight in Belgium, Switzerland, and Japan.

* Among voluntary arrangements is an agreement reached between the European Union and European and Asian automobile manufacturer organizations setting reduced targets for carbon-dioxide emissions from passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.

* "Green tariffs" have been used by Belgium, Germany, Hungary and Switzerland to spur the use of renewable energy. The "tariffs" guarantee electrical-generating companies a higher price for a unit of renewable energy than the prevailing market price.

* Steps have been taken by a number of governments to require waste firms and landfills to prevent the escape of greenhouse gases such as methane. Landfill taxes per ton of waste in Switzerland and Norway are higher for facilties that are not sealed. In Austria, taxes are higher for landfills that do not recover the methane emitted.

Accomplishments to Date. . . and Challenges

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2912.php

Accomplishments to Date. . . and Challenges

Technology versus politics and economics

* Between 1990 and 2000, the total greenhouse-gas emissions of industrialized countries actually declined slightly (by 5.6 per cent) -- but that reflected unusual circumstances. Because of the steep and painful drop in economic output of the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, which were shifting from centrally planned to market economies, emissions in those nations fell by 37 per cent. That more than compensated for an 8.2 per cent increase in emissions among developed countries elsewhere.

But now the Eastern European "economies in transition" are growing again, and their emissions are rising. The real work, what is really needed -- worldwide economic progress combined with reduced emissions -- has yet to be accomplished. It will not be easy.

* The good news is that technology already exists that could stabilize and even reduce greenhouse gas levels within a few decades. The problem is that getting such technology in place -- installing and paying for more efficient procedures for burning fossil fuels and for using renewable energy sources such as solar power and wind power -- is politically and economically difficult.

* Economic systems and governments currently aren't arranged for accomplishing greenhouse-gas reductions. The costs of cutting emissions tend to be immediate and specific -- they can carry an economic sting, for example, for businesses, automobile owners, and electrical-generation facilities. The benefits, such as fewer severe storms, floods, and droughts, not to mention and a cleaner and safer environment, will occur gradually in the future and will benefit people everywhere, whether they pay for the relevant technology or not. It is hard to put a price on these positive outcomes.

The system has to be adjusted so that the burdens as well as the benefits are fairly distributed.

* There also are competitiveness problems: if laws and regulations around the world aren't equally demanding, businesses in countries that don't require greenhouse-gas reductions will be able to operate more cheaply and sell their products at lower prices (at least in the short term) than businesses in countries that require more climate-friendly behavior. Multinational corporations may shift their factories to places where regulations are less restrictive.

* Some technologies and policies, called "no-regret options," can reduce emissions and pay for themselves through greater efficiency and lower operating costs. . . but even those require investments up front which some businesses may not be able or willing to pay, especially if they don't receive credits or loans from governments.

* While useful technology may be bought and shared, in the end "no regrets" methods won't be enough to stabilize or reduce worldwide greenhouse-gas levels -- governments, businesses, and people are going to have to make difficult choices and take painful steps. That will call for political will. . . and the world, of course, is facing many other problems that require attention and sacrifice.

Examples of progress to date

* Denmark stabilized emissions between 1990 and 2000 by switching to more efficient methods of electricity generation and by shifting from coal use in industry to renewable energy and natural gas. The country's Gross Domestic Product increased by 27 per cent during the decade.

* Germany achieved a considerable reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through the economic restructuring resulting from the reunification of the country, through the reduced use of lignite, and through greater use of wind energy. There also were substantial cuts in methane emissions from coal production, waste management, and agriculture, and in nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.

* The United Kingdom established a "national climate change" policy that set targets for using energy more efficiently, and was able to lower emissions, among other things by using less coal and more natural gas.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2913.php

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

192 countries around the world have joined an international treaty that sets general goals and rules for confronting climate change.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Convention has the goal of preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate system.

Bodies of the Framework Convention, actors in the negotiation process, and the UNFCCC Secretariat. The functioning of the Convention depends on a series of groups and agencies. They operate at the centre of a lively debate.

The Rio Conventions. The UNFCCC was one of three conventions adopted at the 1992 "Rio Earth Summit." The others -- the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification -- involve matters strongly affected by climate change. Attempts are being made to coordinate the work of the three agreements.

What Can Be Done

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2907.php

What Can Be Done

Measures -- heavily dependent on teamwork and political will -- can slow the rate of global warming and help the world cope with the climate shifts that occur.

Reducing emissions. Burning oil and coal more efficiently, switching to renewable forms of energy, such as solar and wind power, and developing new technologies for industry and transport can attack the problem at the source.

Expanding forests. Trees remove carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere. The more we have, the better. But deforestation -- the current trend -- liberates additional carbon and makes global warming worse.

Changing lifestyles and rules. The cultures and habits of millions of people -- essentially, whether they waste energy or use it efficiently -- have a major impact on climate change. So do government policies and regulations.

Coping. Steps have to be taken -- and the sooner the better -- to limit damage from consequences of global warming that are now inevitable.

Accomplishments to date. . . and problems. A side effect of the painful economic transition in Eastern Europe was a slight fall in greenhouse-gas emissions among the world's major economies between 1990 and 2000. But making more sustained progress will require overcoming a number of obstacles.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Background

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/other_methodological_issues/items/1077.php

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an independent body founded under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It assesses the scientific literature and provides vital scientific information to the climate change process.

The IPCC is best known for its comprehensive assessment reports, incorporating summaries for policymakers from all three Working Groups, which are widely recognized as the most credible sources of information on climate change.

The First Assessment Report in 1990 helped launch negotiations on the Convention.

The 1995 Second Assessment Report, in particular its statement that "the balance of evidence suggests … a discernible human influence on global climate", stimulated many governments into intensifying negotiations on what was to become the Kyoto Protocol.

Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Third Assessment Report, released in May 2001, confirmed the findings of the Second Assessment Report, providing new and stronger evidence of a warming world.

* Scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change, and
* Scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of mitigation,

Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

During SBSTA 26 (Bonn, May 2007), the secretariat has organized, in cooperation with the IPCC, an in-depth briefing during the sessions of the subsidiary bodies on the contributions of the three IPCC working groups to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

The Greenhouse Effect and the Carbon Cycle

reposted from: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2903.php


* Life on earth is made possible by energy from the sun, which arrives mainly in the form of visible light.

About 30 per cent of sunlight is scattered back into space by the outer atmosphere, but the rest reaches the earth's surface, which reflects it in the form of a calmer, more slow-moving type of energy called infrared radiation. (This is the sort of heat thrown off by an electric grill before the bars begin to grow red.) Infrared radiation is carried slowly aloft by air currents, and its eventual escape into space is delayed by greenhouse gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, and methane.

* Greenhouse gases make up only about 1 per cent of the atmosphere, but they act like a blanket around the earth, or like the glass roof of a greenhouse -- they trap heat and keep the planet some 30 degrees C warmer than it would be otherwise.

* Human activities are making the blanket "thicker" -- the natural levels of these gases are being supplemented by emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas; by additional methane and nitrous oxide produced by farming activities and changes in land use; and by several long-lived industrial gases that do not occur naturally.

* These changes are happening at unprecedented speed. If emissions continue to grow at current rates, it is almost certain that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide will double from pre-industrial levels during the 21st century. It is possible they will triple.

* The result, known as the "enhanced greenhouse effect," is a warming of the earth's surface and lower atmosphere. The IPCC assesses with very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. The ‘best case’ computer climate models estimate that the average global temperature will rise by 1.8° C to 4.0° C by the year 2100. A temperature increase of 0.74° C occurred last century and for the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2° C per decade is projected should greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace and are allowed to double from their pre-industrial level.
* A rise in temperature will be accompanied by changes in climate -- in such things as cloud cover, precipitation, wind patterns, and the duration of seasons. In its Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC projects that heat waves and heavy precipitation events are very likely to increase in frequency in the 21st century. In a world that is crowded and under stress, millions of people depend on weather patterns, such as monsoon rains, to continue as they have in the past. Changes, at a minimum, will be difficult and disruptive.

* Carbon dioxide is responsible for over 60 per cent of the "enhanced greenhouse effect." Humans are burning coal, oil, and natural gas at a rate that is much, much faster than the speed at which these fossil fuels were created. This is releasing the carbon stored in the fuels into the atmosphere and upsetting the carbon cycle, the millennia-old, precisely balanced system by which carbon is exchanged between the air, the oceans, and land vegetation. Currently, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are rising by over 10 per cent every 20 years.

Climate Change Science - UNFCCC

Reposted from: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2902.php

Climate Change Science

Human activity -- particularly the burning of fossil fuels -- has made the blanket of greenhouse gases around the earth "thicker." The resulting increase in global temperatures is alterating the complex web of systems that allow life to thrive on earth, such as cloud cover, rainfall, wind patterns, ocean currents, and the distribution of plant and animal species.

The greenhouse effect and the carbon cycle. More of the sun's energy is being trapped in the atmosphere, and much more of the world's carbon (in the form of carbon dioxide) is resting in the air rather than in trees, soil, and subterranean deposits.

Current evidence of climate change. Some consequences of global warming are already apparent.

Future effects. The complexity of the climate system means predictions vary widely, but even the minimum changes forecast could mean frequently flooded coastlines, disruptions to food and water supplies, and the extinction of many species.

The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. An international group of experts formed in 1988 reviews scientific research and offers assessments of climate change and its effects.