Climate change: In graphics

It is "very likely" that human activity is the cause for climate change, scientists from over 130 countries have concluded. The graphics below illustrate their predictions on just how much global temperatures may rise over the next century.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that temperatures are most likely to rise by 1.8C-4C by 2100. But the possible range is much greater; 1.1C-6.4C. The maps above show how a range of three different scenarios will affect different parts of the planet.

The emissions scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, used to create the maps above, are based on a range of detailed economic and technological data. These versions of the future consider different population increases, fossil and alternative fuel use, and consequent CO2 increases. The broad range of outcomes they show is displayed in the charts below.

Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas, its rise since the industrial revolution is clear. Burning coal, using oil and deforestation all place CO2 into the atmosphere.

The other two main greenhouse gases are methane and nitrous oxide. Both gases have a much smaller presence in the atmosphere than CO2 but are much stronger greenhouse gases; methane has over 20 times the effect of C02, while nitrous oxide is nearly 300 times stronger.

G8 leaders agree to climate deal

G8 leaders agree to climate deal

German and American views had differed ahead of the summit

Leaders of the G8 nations have agreed to seek "substantial" cuts in emissions in an effort to tackle climate change.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the G8 would negotiate within a UN framework to seek a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol by the end of 2009.

No mandatory target was set for the cuts, but Mrs Merkel's preference for a 50% emissions cut by the year 2050 was included in the agreed statement.

Developing nations should also cut emissions, the leaders agreed.

Elsewhere at the summit, US President George W Bush met Russian President Vladimir Putin against a backdrop of disagreements over US plans for missile defence.

Mr Bush said the pair had had a "constructive" meeting, in which Mr Putin suggested using a radar station in Azerbaijan instead of facilities elsewhere in Europe.

Turning the tide

Announcing the climate change deal, Mrs Merkel described it as a "significant and important step forward".

"We agreed... that CO2 emissions must first be stopped and then followed by substantial reductions," the German chancellor said.

Global greenhouse gas emissions must stop rising, followed by substantial global emission reductions G8 statement Reaction to climate deal In pictures: Anti-G8 protests

Her preferred benchmark of 50% cuts by 2050 - backed by the EU, Canada and Japan - would be given serious consideration, she said.

According to an extract from the agreed text published on the G8 website, the leaders agreed to take "strong and early" action.

"Taking into account the scientific knowledge as represented in the recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] reports, global greenhouse gas emissions must stop rising, followed by substantial global emission reductions," the text says.

Yvo de Boer, head of the UN's climate change division, quickly welcomed the agreement.

He told the Reuters news agency the deal augured well for a meeting to discuss a post-Kyoto consensus scheduled for Bali in December.

Blair optimistic

The BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus, in Heiligendamm, says Mrs Merkel has crafted a compromise while appearing not to have abandoned her principles.

I'm both surprised and very pleased at how far we have come forward Tony Blair Climate change: In graphics

Ahead of the meeting President Bush proposed the establishment of his own process of climate control negotiations.

The compromise appears to bring Mr Bush's plan into the wider UN-brokered process - something the US had previously resisted, saying it would not even discuss a post-Kyoto deal.

But changing diplomatic chemistry and an evolving debate on climate change back in the US forced the president to give ground, our correspondent says.

Speaking to reporters in Heiligendamm, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair deflected concerns about the absence of a precise definition of the term "substantial cuts".

"I'm both surprised and very pleased at how far we have come forward in the couple of years since [the 2005 G8 summit at] Gleneagles," he told reporters.

"Now we have an agreement that there will be a climate change deal, it will involve everyone, including the US and China, and it will involve substantial cuts."

India, China under pressure at G8

By Sanjoy Majumder BBC News, Delhi

Reducing global warming is likely to be high on the G8 agenda

India and China are coming under increasing pressure to sign up to a mandatory limit on greenhouse gas emissions at the G8 summit in Germany.

Tackling climate change is set to be the main focus of the annual summit of the world's major industrial nations.

India says it is committed to combating climate change, but will not do so at the cost of its economic development.

India and China's participation in the summit for the past three years is a sign of their growing economic clout.

'Historical responsibilities'

With the issue of climate change expected to take centre stage at this year's meeting, India, which is one of the world's leading polluters, says it recognises the threat of climate change.

Once our per capita emission levels reach the same as those of the industrialised countries, we'll be very happy to do our share too Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon Climate 'threat to Asia' Climate change hits poor

But, India says it cannot take steps which will retard its economic growth which is the only way to deliver the vast majority of its people from poverty.

Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon says it is unfair to target India when the problem of global warming has been created by the industrialised countries.

"I think what is important is that the burden of the incremental costs of doing additional steps must be shared fairly and the principal of that is well-known, it's agreed," Mr Menon said.

"The fact is, historical responsibilities, even in terms of present emission levels - it's quite clear who's responsible for this.

If the Ganges flow drops, millions could struggle to find drinking water

"Once our per capita emission levels reach the same as those of the industrialised countries, we'll be very happy to do our share too."

A recent report by environmental experts has warned that India will be one of the countries worst affected by climate change, and could face widespread famine and drought.

This will affect its food production and cause large-scale devastation, the report says.

But given the sheer size of the population and the rate at which India is growing, experts warn that any global agreement on climate change would be meaningless without the country's unconditional participation.

The G8 is made up of the United States, Russia, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Canada and Italy.

As well as India and China, developing countries such as Brazil, Mexico and South Africa are also participating in this year's meeting.

Carbon trade scheme 'is failing'

By Julian O' Halloran BBC File On 4

The government's own figures show an increase in greenhouse gases

The EU's carbon trading scheme has increased electricity bills, given a windfall to power companies and failed to cut greenhouse gases, it is claimed.

An investigation by BBC Radio 4's File on 4 programme has found that after two and half years the scheme has yet to cut in carbon dioxide emissions.

The consumer body Energywatch said customers are getting a raw deal.

But a government minister has promised that the scheme's next phase will be a big improvement.

The EU's Emission Trading Scheme - a key part of the UK Government's drive to combat climate change - began in 2005 and created a trade in carbon allowances.

It is essentially a permit to pollute.

Power generators received their allowances free of charge but were allowed to reflect the value of those in increased prices to customers, as if the companies had actually had to buy the allowances.

Energywatch believes this increased electricity bills by about 7% in 2005.

'Windfall profits'

And according to one government estimate, that delivered windfall profits of up to £1.3bn to the generators in that year - higher than environmental campaigners had claimed last year.

However, so far the carbon scheme has brought no clear payback in terms of cutting emissions.

Provisional government figures from the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) suggest CO2 output in Britain actually went up, by 1.25% last year wiping out a slight drop of 0.01% in 2005.

It is also reckoned that CO2 emissions across the EU also rose by between 1 and 1.5% over the last two years.

Carbon reduction

The chief executive of Energywatch, Allan Asher, said , "Consumers increasingly accept the need for reductions in carbon.

"However they are paying the price and not seeing the benefits. The big generators are banking huge amounts of money and consumers aren't benefiting."

But the Minister for Climate Change, Ian Pearson, told File on 4 that the carbon trading scheme has been an administrative success yet concedes there have been problems in the first three year phase to the end of 2007.

"If you are saying to me it hasn't achieved a massive amount so far when it comes to CO2 reductions, well I agree with you and I think Phase Two will be a big, big improvement...and a key instrument in helping us all to achieve our carbon reduction targets across Europe."

File On 4 is broadcast Tuesday 5 June 2007 at 2000 BST and repeated on Sunday 10 June 2007.

Energy heads back carbon market

Tony Blair was one of the leaders present at the forum

Business leaders from the Energy industry have called for global carbon markets to help tackle climate change.

Speaking ahead of the G8 summit of industrialised nations, they said they wanted a market in which carbon prices were transparent and consistent.

The idea of carbon trading is that firms can either cut emissions or buy the right to keep polluting.

It is hoped that such a global market would encourage the development of cleaner technologies.

"I believe that unlocking the ability of a competitive market to innovate and change behaviours will achieve the lost cost solution to climate change," said Tony Hayward, the newly appointed chief executive of BP.

Energy sector leaders are keen that there should be a single price for carbon emissions throughout the world.

They were taking part in a two-day event in Berlin organised by the environmental network Globe International ahead of this week's G8 summit.

It was attended by legislators and business leaders from the G8 countries as well as emerging economies such as Mexico, Brazil, China and India.

UN warning over global ice loss

A warming world will affect all corners of the globe, the UN warns

Hundreds of millions of livelihoods will be affected by declining snow and ice cover as a result of global warming, a UN report has warned.

The risks facing people included losing access to drinking water, and rising sea levels, the study concluded.

The findings were published by the UN's Environment Programme (Unep).

Unep chief Achim Steiner said the report showed that time was running out for political leaders to reach a global agreement on curbing emissions.

Mr Steiner made his call for action at the launch of the UN Global Outlook for Ice and Snow report, which was being held in Tromso, Norway.

Melting of snow and ice will in itself have severe consequences on nature and society Helen Bjoernoey, Norwegian Environment Minister

"The report underlines that the fate of the world's snowy and icy places in a climatically challenged world should be cause for concern in every ministry, boardroom and living room across the world," he said.

"The missing link is universal political action. Today's report should empower the public to take their leaders to task [and] should empower them to ask how much hotter it has to get before we act."

'Feedback' fears

The study warns of a range of threats that could destabilise ecosystems around the world, with potentially devastating consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

Melting glaciers in Asia's mountains could affect an estimated 40% of the world's population, who rely on ice melt for crop irrigation and drinking water.

It added that rising temperatures were already resulting in the thawing of permafrost in places such as Siberia. This was leading to the release into the atmosphere of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

The fate of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which hold almost all of the planet's freshwater ice, needed to be better understood, the UN publication urged.

It said that if emissions of greenhouse gases continued unabated, the massive ice sheets were likely to become unstable as the world continued to warm.

Without taking measures to mitigate sea level rise, an estimated 145 million people, primarily in Asia, would be exposed to the risk of flooding.

The UN said that the International Polar Year, a 24-month global scientific study of the polar regions, would help shed light on how climate change is altering the ice dynamics in these regions.

The authors also warned that less ice and snow cover was leading to more of the Sun's energy being absorbed by the land and the sea, rather than being reflected back into space.

They said this "positive feedback" could accelerate global warming and result in more abrupt shifts in the climate.

Norway's Environment Minister, Helen Bjoernoey, said the comprehensive study into the state of the world's snow and ice presented a bleak prognosis.

"To me, it is particularly alarming to realise climate change can be a reinforcing process - global warming results in further global warming," the minister observed.

"As documented in the report, melting of snow and ice will in itself have severe consequences on nature and society."

Australia PM pledges climate plan

Mr Howard said Australia would set limits on emissions

Australian Prime Minister John Howard has announced a shift in policy on climate change, promising to set up a carbon trading scheme to cut pollution.

Mr Howard said he would set a target next year for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and also pledged to put in place a carbon trading scheme by 2012.

Australia is one of the worst polluters per head of population in the world.

Despite his new plans, Mr Howard has warned that setting a cap on carbon emissions would hurt the economy.

His announcement comes ahead of a national election later this year, in which Mr Howard will be seeking his fifth consecutive win.

If we get this wrong it will do enormous damage to the economy John Howard

The opposition Labor party, which has a strong lead in the opinion polls, has portrayed the government as dithering and backward-looking on global warming, reports the BBC's Phil Mercer in Sydney.

Labor has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2050. Mr Howard does not plan to reveal his targets until next year, once the economic costs of carbon trading have been fully studied.

"Implementing an emissions trading scheme and setting a long-term goal for reducing emissions will be the most momentous economic decision Australia will take in the next decade," Mr Howard told an annual meeting of his Liberal Party.

"If we get this wrong it will do enormous damage to the economy, to jobs and to the economic well-being of ordinary Australians, especially low-income households."

'Better scheme'

Australia and the US are the only major industrialised nations not to ratify the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Australian farmers have seen record droughts this year

Mr Howard promised that Australia's carbon trading scheme would be better than those in place in Europe.

Australia has recently seen record drought conditions, which have harmed economic growth and caused widespread despair among the farming community.

Residents have been ordered to cut back on consumption and farm production has plummeted.

Some experts believe that these parched conditions are the result of the world's hunger for fossil fuels, while others though see it as part of a natural cycle.

Whatever the arguments, many Australians want their leaders to be far more proactive when it comes to the environment, our correspondent says.

China unveils climate change plan

China stresses that economic progress must come first

China has unveiled its first national plan for climate change, saying it is intent on tackling the problem but not at the expense of economic development.

The 62-page report reiterated China's aim to reduce energy use by a fifth before 2010 and increase the amount of renewable energy it produces.

But it also repeated Beijing's view that responsibility for climate change rests with rich westernised countries.

The report comes ahead of a G8 meeting that will focus on global warming.

Germany, which is hosting the meeting of industrialised nations, is calling for a new UN protocol on climate change to replace the Kyoto pact when it expires in 2012.

China's role in the debate is crucial, as many analysts believe it could overtake the US this year as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

'Trailblazer'

China's new national plan on climate change offered few new targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but outlined how it intended to meet the goals it has already set, analysts say.

This includes the use of more wind, nuclear and hydro power as well as making coal-fired plants more efficient, the document outlined.

CHINA'S EMISSIONS Between 1994 and 2004, China's greenhouse gas emissions grew by 4% a year China currently depends on coal to meet two-thirds of its energy needs It hopes to raise its use of renewable energy from 7% to 10% by 2010 China may overtake the US as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases by the end of this year

But it also stressed that the country's first priority remained "sustainable development and poverty eradication".

"China is a developing country. Although we do not have the obligation to cut emissions, it does not mean we do not want to shoulder our share of responsibilities," Ma Kai, chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission, said.

"We must reconcile the need for development with the need for environmental protection," he said, adding that China wanted to "blaze a new path to industrialisation".

He said rich countries were responsible for most of the greenhouse gases produced over the past century, and had an "unshirkable responsibility" to do more to tackle the problem.

"The international community should respect the developing countries' right to develop," he added.

The plan is a strong declaration of intentions, but so far China has missed almost every environmental target it has set itself, the BBC's Quentin Sommerville in Shanghai says.

Political debate

Climate change is expected to be fiercely debated when China's President Hu Jintao and other industrialised leaders meet in Germany for the G8 on Wednesday.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged them to agree firm targets for cutting polluting emissions.

President Hu will attend the G8 summit this week

In a BBC interview, he said it was now up to the richest countries to show leadership on the issue.

"It will be tragic if we don't take any action," he said. "My main message is that to galvanise this political will at the leaders level so that we can take necessary action."

The UN secretary-general has made tackling climate change one of his top priorities, and called for a meeting of world leaders on the subject in September.

He wants the UN to be in the lead when it comes to agreeing what should replace the Kyoto Protocol, the current agreement curbing greenhouse gases, when it expires in 2012.

US President George W Bush - whose country is the only industrialised nation apart from Australia not to ratify the protocol - has proposed uniting a group of big emitters who would set non-binding targets by the end of next year.

But some analysts say this has been interpreted as a way of undercutting other initiatives - for example by the G8 or United Nations.

US seeks new greenhouse gas goals

reposted from BBC

Germany wants a 50% cut in emissions by 2050 Speech extracts

US President George W Bush has urged countries to agree on long-term goals for greenhouse gas emissions.

He said he would hold meetings bringing together the US and 14 other major emitters, including developing nations, to set targets by the end of 2008.

Mr Bush was speaking ahead of next week's G8 summit, where Germany is expected to call for cuts in emissions.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel welcomed the US proposal, saying it was "common ground" for action.

BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin says Mr Bush's speech was short on details, and White House aides have made clear Mr Bush will oppose demands for the US to cut emissions and join a global carbon trading system.

The way to meet the challenge of energy and global climate change is through technology George W Bush Q&A: Bush's climate goals

The US seems to be trying to set up a separate framework on climate change talks outside the G8, our correspondent says.

Mrs Merkel has called for a major deal, including slowing the rise in average temperatures to 2C this century, by way of a cut in global emissions by 50% below 1990 levels by 2050.

Alternative approach

In his speech on Thursday in Washington, Mr Bush said his administration took climate change seriously.

"The United States will work with other nations to establish a new framework on greenhouse gas emissions for when the Kyoto protocol expires," he said.

Mrs Merkel and Mr Bush do not see eye to eye on climate change

To achieve this goal, he added, the US would hold a series of meetings bringing together "nations that produced most greenhouse gas emissions, including nations with rapidly growing economies like India and China".

The US has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which sets out targets on lowering emissions until 2012.

Mr Bush also repeated that solutions to the problem of global warming would be found through the development of new technologies.

"The United States is in the lead," he said. "The world is on the verge of great breakthroughs that will help us become better stewards of the environment."

HAVE YOUR SAY Mr Bush has never been an environmentalist, and this is no sign he is becoming one Rick, Lewisville, TX Send us your comments

The US president urged other nations to eliminate tariffs on clean energy technologies.

British PM Tony Blair hailed the announcement, saying the US was ready to be part of a global climate deal for the first time.

"It's a big step forward and sets the right framework for next week's meeting," Mr Blair said.

But a climate expert with the UK-based environmental group Greenpeace, Charlie Kronick, criticised the plan.

"The only way you can get a grip on carbon emissions is to cap and trade them globally," Mr Kronick told Reuters news agency.

The G8 summit will be held on 6-8 June in Heiligendamm in Germany.